Why Belém Needs to Bridge the Adaptation Gap?

Record-breaking heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclonic storms are no longer distant warnings – they are reshaping daily life worldwide. While farmers are losing crops to drought, cities are trapped in heat islands. Millions are being displaced by storms and rising seas. All these climate change impacts are symptoms of a growing climate adaptation gap – the divide between what is needed to protect people from climate impacts and what is being done.

Hence, as the world approaches COP30 in Belém, the need for placing climate adaptation at the forefront of global discussions is more critical than ever. Over the decades, it has become increasingly evident that even if we focus on GHG emissions reduction and limit global warming to 1.5°C, climate impacts are beyond our ability to cope. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the year 2024 witnessed global average temperatures reach 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, and more than 110 million people were impacted by climate-related disasters. These mounting disruptions are straining infrastructure, undermining economies, and accelerating inequality worldwide.

This escalating crisis underscores why COP30 must deliver a breakthrough on adaptation. The discussions in Belém will determine whether the global community can move beyond pledges toward real on-ground resilience-building, particularly in highly vulnerable developing countries. The main objective is to achieve not just pursue a moral or environmental goal, but also to advance economic and social development across the Global South and the world at large.

Understanding Adaptation and Why It Matters?

Adaptation refers to the adjustments societies and economies make to cope with climate change impacts. This includes modifying infrastructure, health systems, agriculture, and urban planning to withstand extreme events and capitalize on emerging opportunities when possible. Unlike mitigation, which targets reducing emissions, adaptation is about protecting assets and people from mounting risks. The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025 notes that every USD 1 invested in adaptation, such as in flood protection or urban greening, can yield up to USD 14 in avoided damages or increased resilience. Recent research indicates that every dollar invested in climate resilience can yield over ten times the return in just a decade. Despite the clear benefits, most adaptation planning remains aspirational rather than actionable, with only a small share of countries tracking actual outcomes or resilience improvements. To bridge this gap, it is important to embed adaptation into core development and investment planning rather than treating it as a parallel agenda.

The Unequal Burden: Why Global South Pays the Price?

Global South, despite emitting less than 10% of global greenhouse gases, bears more than 75% of adaptation costs. As per studies, by 2035, annual adaptation requirements by developing countries will range from USD 310 to USD 365 billion; yet only USD 26 billion was delivered as part of public international finance to Global South countries in 2023. This widening gap leaves many nations underprepared. The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025 also highlights that out of 197 countries, 36 still rely on outdated strategies, often due to limited technical and institutional capacities. The gap between need and current flows is estimated at roughly USD 284-339 billion per year (for 2035) under current patterns. For communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, the adaptation gap means persistent vulnerability – damaged infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and food insecurity remain daily challenges, not abstract concerns. However, Global South is not merely a passive recipient of aid; it is also driving innovative adaptation leadership. From Odisha’s community-based cyclone preparedness, which has cut fatalities by over 90%, to Kenya’s locally led ASAL program integrating indigenous knowledge into planning, innovation and agency are thriving – there are many emerging examples but what’s missing is the scale and finance to sustain them.

From Risk to Responsibility: The Private Sector’s Role in Bridging the Adaptation Gap

While financing adaptation is often framed as a government responsibility, the private sector is already feeling the consequences. Businesses, investors, and industries across the Global South are already confronting massive losses – from disrupted supply chains to damaged infrastructure and shrinking profit margins. As climate risks translate into financial risks, it is high time for the private sector too to mobilise its innovation and capital to bridge the widening adaptation finance gap.

For corporations and investors, the adaptation gap is both a risk and a call to action. Unchecked climate impacts can disrupt supply chains, reduce productivity, damage assets, and threaten market stability. For example, agricultural exporters in Africa and Asia face yield volatility from prolonged droughts, while manufacturers risk operational shutdowns due to flooding or heat stress. Hence, bridging the adaptation gap is also a substantial economic opportunity. Strategic investments in resilience, such as climate-smart infrastructure, sustainable water use, and robust supplier networks protect assets, expand market access, and build social licenses to operate. Proactive adaptation not only aligns with the growing expectations of stakeholders and ESG frameworks but also strengthens long-term profitability and competitiveness.

Turning Vulnerability into Resilience – Financing the Future of Adaptation

The widening adaptation gap is a wake-up call to act on enhancing climate resilience. For this, recognising the adaptation gap is the first step. Solutions such as innovative financial instruments, nature-based approaches, emerging technologies, and local institutions already exist and together chart a hopeful path forward. What’s needed is to scale them equitably and embed them in local realities. Recognising the adaptation gap is only the first step – designing inclusive, well-financed, and context-driven responses is how the Global South can turn vulnerability into resilience and safeguard its development future.

References

1. World Resources Institute. “RELEASE: WRI Study Finds Climate Adaptation Investments Yield Massive Returns — Over $10 for Every $1 Spent.” Press Release, June 3, 2025. Washington, D.C. https://www.wri.org/news/release-wri-study-finds-climate-adaptation-investments-yield-massive-returns .
2. World Meteorological Organization. State of the Global Climate 2024 (WMO-No. 1368). Geneva: WMO, March 2025.
3. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2025. Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty. Nairobi: UNEP. https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025.
4. United Nations Environment Programme. “Slow Climate Adaptation Threatening Lives and Economies.” Press release, 29 October 2025. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/slow-climate-adaptation-threatening-lives-and-economies .
5. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. “From Storm to Strength: Odisha’s ‘Zero Casualty’ Model for Community-Centred Disaster Resilience.” Blog, 9 April 2025. https://www.unescap.org/blog/storm-strength-odishas-zero-casualty-model-community-centered-disaster-resilience .
6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “The Restoration Initiative: Restoration of Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) of Kenya through Bio-Enterprise Development and Other Incentives.” Project webpage. Accessed November 7, 2025. https://www.fao.org/in-action/forest-landscape-restoration-mechanism/resources/projects/project-detail/the-global-environment-facility-%28gef%29-6-project–tri-programme/en

The authors are Devika Chhabra – Analyst, Dr. Garima Kotnala – Lead- Low Carbon Pathways, Navoneela Chakraborty – Analyst and Kumar Rajnish – Lead, Special Initiatives in the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global, an international development organisation