Over 84 per cent of Indian districts are susceptible to extreme heat waves, while 70 per cent of the areas are also experiencing increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, according to a study by IPE Global and Esri India.
According to a press release, the study highlights a rise in both the occurrence and severity of these extreme weather events over recent decades. India has seen a fifteenfold increase in extreme heat wave days during the March-April-May and June-July-August-September periods over the past 30 years, with the last decade alone showing a nineteenfold increase.
Additionally, the study indicates that the monsoon seasons are now characterized by extended summer-like conditions on non-rainy days.
Abinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the author of the study, said, “The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events are a resultant of 0.6 °C temperature rise in the last century. El Nino is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt across the globe with India facing the extreme events turbulence more in patterns than waves.”
He added, “Recent Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes and the cities getting paralyzed with sudden and abrupt downpour is a testament that climate is changed. Our analysis suggests that 8 out of 10 Indians will be highly exposed to extreme events by 2036 and these numbers peak of volumes. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change”.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, “The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves in conjunction with intense precipitations are causing significant impacts on lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. A holistic, data-driven approach is essential for informed policy decisions, climate adaptation, and resilience. GIS technology, with advanced spatial analysis tools and the ability to integrate a variety of data, enables a comprehensive understanding of the impact of climate from economic, social, and environmental perspectives.
He further said, “Decision-makers in government can use it for resilient infrastructure planning & development, disaster management, and citizen engagement. Businesses can integrate climate insights for better strategic planning and building higher resilience in supply chains and business operations. GIS technology is already the core foundation of various disaster resilience programs, infrastructure, utilities, natural resources management, and missions like smart cities, AMRUT, National Water Mission, and Clean Ganga, among others.
“At Esri India, we continuously work towards enabling our partners and end users with the latest technology, tools, and data, so that they can use mapping and location analytics to manage the impacts of climate change in their efforts to build a sustainable future for all”, Kumar said.
Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are experiencing the combined impact of extreme heat stress and heavy rainfall. The IPE Global study reveals that over 84 per cent of Indian districts are classified as extreme heatwave hotspots, with approximately 70 per cent of these districts also facing frequent and erratic rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September) over the past 30 years.
Furthermore, more than 62 per cent of heatwave-prone districts are seeing erratic and persistent rainfall during the months of October, November, and December.
The rising atmospheric temperatures and humidity contribute to the global increase in heatwaves, particularly in tropical regions.
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director- IPE Global, said, “Recently United Nations Secretary- General Antonio Guterres issued a ‘Call to action on extreme heat in response to the deadly impacts of rising temperatures all over the world’ and India is not insulted. Climate and development pathways are intricately linked.”
He added, “Nearly all countries of the Global South are faced with the challenge of having to improve living conditions for a large proportion of their people and simultaneously adapt to the consequences of climate change. We at IPE have been continuously striving to develop and implement strategies that convert environment risks into competitive advantage- and this study is a testament to how we can bring innovations from margins to mainstream that make India and Global South climate ready. Then in true sense India can become the climate solutions capital to the world”.
The study identifies a trend where areas prone to extreme heatwaves are also experiencing a rise in the frequency and intensity of irregular rainfall events. Coastal districts, both on the eastern and western sides, are seeing more unpredictable rainfall.
Areas with frequent heatwaves during June-September also report increased instances of erratic rainfall. The study underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to address these challenges, as the frequency of extreme heat events is expected to affect about 80 per cent of Indians by 2036. It also notes a 55 per cent change in land-use and land-cover in identified hotspots, driven by local climate change factors like deforestation and encroachment on mangroves and wetlands.
To improve resilience, the study recommends integrating risk assessment principles into India’s strategy for managing heatwaves and extreme rainfall. It suggests establishing heat risk observatories to better assess and manage heat-related risks and proposes creating risk financing instruments for mitigation.
Additionally, it recommends appointing heat-risk champions in district disaster management committees to prioritize and unify efforts at the local level. The study highlights the importance of detailed, micro-level hazard assessments for effectively managing climate risks and adapting to changing conditions, as emphasized by global climate action discussions at the G20 summits.
The study was presented at the National Symposium “How can India address climate extremes,” organized by IPE Global, Esri India, and its partners UNESCO and Climate Trends, as global leaders prepare for Climate Week NYC, where discussions on climate action commitments will take place.
