There is a shifting pattern of extreme climate events across India with some flood-prone areas becoming susceptible to droughts and vice versa, a report by a global advisory and implementation services group and Geographic Information Systems solutions provider said on Friday.
The IPE Global and Esri-India report noted there is often a combination of both hazards. It said over 80% of districts in Gujarat have faced increased frequency and intensity of extreme floods over two decades. This may explain the devastating floods in Saurashtra this year too.
The number of districts that have transitioned from experiencing floods to droughts surpasses those that have shifted from droughts to floods. Districts such as Srikakulum, Guntur, Kurnool (Andhra Pradesh), Cuttack (Odisha), Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda (Telangana), and Paschim Champaran (Bihar) have seen a reversal from floods to droughts.
In Southern India, states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka are facing a notable increase in drought. Bengaluru Urban (Karnataka), Pune (Maharashtra), Ahmedabad, (Gujarat) Patna (Bihar), and Prayagraj (Uttar Pradesh) districts are witnessing the maximum swapping trends.
The IPE Global and Esri-India report offers empirical evidence that regions in southern, western, and parts of central India are increasingly encountering drought or drought-like situations. Districts such as Rajkot, Surendranagar (Gujarat), Ajmer, Jodhpur, (Rajasthan) and Aurangabad (Maharashtra) have faced both floods and drought. “The findings indicate that drought events are becoming more severe across the Indian subcontinent which can also be linked to [an] increase in [the] number of heat wave days,” the report said.
Districts in Tripura, Kerala, Bihar, Punjab, and Jharkhand have shown maximum swapping trends. Over 85% of Indian districts are prone to flood, drought, cyclone, and heat waves of which 45% are witnessing a swapping trend, the report said. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these climate extremes have risen by four-fold in recent decades.
Using a pentad-decadal analysis, the study compiled a catalogue of extreme climate events from 1973 to 2023 by employing spatial and temporal modelling.
IPE Global head (climate change and sustainability practice) Abinash Mohanty, who authored the study, said the current trend of catastrophic climate extremes that exposes nine out of 10 Indians to extreme climate events is a result of a 0.6 °C temperature rise in the last century. “El Nino [which influences patterns such as heavy rains, floods, and drought] is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt across the globe with India facing the extreme events turbulence more in patterns than waves.”
Mohanty said Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes, floods in Gujarat, the disappearance of Om Parvat’s snow cover, and the cities getting paralysed with sudden and abrupt downpours is a testament that climate has changed. “Our analysis suggests that more than 1.47 billion Indians will be highly exposed to climate extremes by 2036.”
Mohanty said embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate-risk observatories and infrastructure climate funds should become a national imperative to safeguard the economy, especially for sensitive sectors such as agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change.
Over 60% of districts in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam are facing more than one extreme climate event.
